Unabated climate change may bring disasters, deeper poverty to Asia: ADB Report
ISLAMABAD : Climate change will bring soaring temperatures, more intense storms, erratic rainfall, plummeting crop yields and a collapse of coral reefs in Asia and the Pacific, which could severely affect their future growth, reverse current development gains, and degrade quality of life, according to the Asian Development Bank.
ADB and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), under a business-as-usual scenario, a 6 degree Celsius temperature increase is projected over the Asian landmass by the end of the century.
Some countries in the region could experience significantly hotter climates with temperature increases in Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and the northwest part of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) projected to reach 8 degree Celsius,
according to the report, titled “A Region at Risk: The Human Dimensions of Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific.”
These increases in temperature would lead to drastic changes in the region’s weather system, agriculture and fisheries sectors, land and marine biodiversity, domestic and regional security, trade, urban development, migration, and health.
More intense typhoons and tropical cyclones are expected to hit Asia and the Pacific with rising global mean temperatures. Under a business-as-usual scenario, annual precipitation is expected to increase by up to 50% over most land areas in the region, although countries like Pakistan and Afghanistan may experience a decline in rainfall by 20-50%.
Coastal and low-lying areas in the region will be at an increased risk of flooding. Nineteen of the 25 cities most exposed to a one-meter sea-level rise are located in the region, 7 of which are in the Philippines alone.
Indonesia, however, will be the most affected country in the region by coastal flooding with approximately 5.9 million people expected to be affected every year until 2100.
Increased vulnerability to flooding and other disasters will significantly impact the region – and the world – economically. Global flood losses are expected to increase to $52 billion per year by 2050 from $6 billion in 2005.
Moreover, 13 of the top 20 cities with the largest growth of annual flood losses from 2005-2050 are in Asia and the Pacific: Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Zhanjiang, and Xiamen (PRC); Mumbai, Chennai-Madras, Surat, and Kolkata (India); Ho Chi Minh City (Viet Nam); Jakarta (Indonesia); Bangkok (Thailand); and Nagoya (Japan).
Climate change will also make food production in the region more difficult and production costs higher. In some countries of Southeast Asia, rice yields could decline by up to 50% by 2100 if no adaptation efforts are made.
Almost all crops in Uzbekistan, meanwhile are projected to decrease by 20-50% by 2050 even in a 2 degree Celsius temperature increase (Paris Agreement scenario).
Food shortages could increase the number of malnourished children in South Asia by 7 million, as import costs will likely
increase in the subregion to $15 billion per year compared to $2 billion by 2050.
Marine ecosystems, particularly in the Western Pacific will be in serious danger by 2100. All coral reef systems in the subregion will collapse due to mass coral bleaching if global warming increases by 4 degree Celsius (global business-as-usual scenario).
Even with a 1.5 degree Celsius temperature increase, 89% of coral reefs are expected to suffer from serious bleaching, severely
affecting reef-related fisheries and tourism in Southeast Asia.
Climate change also poses a significant risk to health in Asia and the Pacific. Already, 3.3 million people die every year due to the harmful effects of outdoor air pollution.
Moreover, a warmer climate for the region could endanger energy supply. Climate change can exacerbate energy insecurity
through continued reliance on unsustainable fossil fuels, reduced capacities of thermal power plants due to a scarcity of cooling
water and intermittent performance of hydropower plants as a result of uncertain water discharges, among other factors. Energy insecurity could lead to conflicts as countries compete for limited energy supply.
ADB approved a record $3.7 billion in climate financing in 2016 and has committed to further scale up its investments to $6
billion by 2020.
Source : APP