China November data expected to show sluggish economic growth
BEIJING: An avalanche of data from China in coming weeks is likely to show economic performance in the world’s second-largest economy remains sluggish, reinforcing expectations that Beijing will release more stimulus measures in months ahead. Industrial output growth is expected to have remained at a multi-month low, while exports and imports are likely to have declined at a slower rate, a Reuters poll showed. “Accelerated implementation of various stimulus measures since this summer should help offset part of downward pressures from the ongoing property downturn and the overhang of over-capacity issue,” UBS economists wrote in a research note.
Exports were expected to have dropped 5.0 percent in November after sliding 6.9 in October and imports may have declined 12.6 percent in November from a year earlier, following a 18.8 drop in October that reflected sluggish domestic demand and lower commodity prices, the median forecast of 31 analysts polled by Reuters showed. That may produce a trade surplus of around $63.30 billion. Factory output likely grew 5.6 percent in November year-on-year, remaining the same as October, as firms struggle to cope with persistent deflationary pressures due to overcapacity and softening demand. Activity in China’s factory sector hit a three-year low in November as new orders dwindled, an official survey showed earlier this month, supporting the case for more accommodative policies from authorities. Annual growth of fixed asset investment, a crucial driver of China’s economy, likely eased to 10.1 in the first 11 months of 2015 – the weakest expansion in nearly 15 years. Annual retail sales growth was seen at 11.1 percent in November, accelerating by 0.1 of a percentage point from the previous month’s growth.
The Reuters poll also showed China’s consumer price inflation may have slightly sped up to 1.4 percent in November from 1.3 percent in October, while producer prices fell 5.9 percent, the same rate as in the previous month and the worst since the global financial crisis. M2 money supply is seen growing 13.4 percent in November from a year earlier, easing from October’s 13.5 percent rise. Banks likely made 700.0 billion yuan in new loans in November, up sharply from October’s 513.6 billion yuan although still lower than September’s 1.05 trillion yuan. China’s Premier Li Keqiang said last week that China was on track to reach its economic growth target of about 7 percent this year, and that the economy was going through adjustments to maintain reasonable medium- to long-term growth.